BEGINNING OF A DECADE
NOT ONLY ARE WE STARTING A NEW YEAR, BUT RATHER A NEW DECADE. THERE ARE VISIBLE CERTAIN GLOBAL TRENDS THAT WILL DOMINATE THE YEAR 2020.
BY : SAPNA SRIVASTAVA
Global advocacy groups have nicknamed 2020 a “super year” for activism and action, UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed calls 2020, “the year we must change course,” and hopes to set off a Decade of Action for implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). According to the World Bank, global growth is expected to recover to 2.5 percent in 2020—up slightly from 2.4 percent registered last year amid weakening trade and investment. Nevertheless, downside risks predominate, including the possibility of a re-escalation of global trade tensions, sharp downturns in major economies, and financial disruptions.
Emerging market and developing economies need to rebuild macroeconomic policy space to enhance resilience to adverse shocks and pursue decisive reforms to bolster long-term growth. In India, where weakness in credit from non-bank financial companies is expected to linger, growth is projected to slow to 5% and probably recover to 5.8% the following years, as per the World Bank. In the global real estate space, technological innovation will disrupt the economics of the real estate industry. Expect more real estate operations via blockchain, Artificial intelligence (AI) and predictive analytics in 2020.
GLOBAL HAPPENINGS SHAPING THE YEAR 2020
• The recent US Iran conflict is set to have a wide-ranging implications across the global economies in the year 2020.
• The catastrophic bushfire in Australia comes as warning that climate change will increases the likelihood and intensity of wildfires.
• The UK is set to leave the EU which in a way is setting tone for countries becoming relatively closed economies or part of a tightly knit regional bloc.
• The continuation of U.S.-China trade war suggests that 2020 could be turbulent year on the trade front for most nations.
• Year 2020 might also be called “The Year of Protests” as it started with protests raging in countries from Hong Kong, Iraq, Chile Sudan to Bolivia, India, Nicaragua, and Russia.
INDIA’S START TO 2020
India saw some major political and economic upheavals that are set to cause ripples in the coming year as well.
• Mangalyaan success made India the first Asian nation to reach Mars orbit, joining the elite global space club. Riding high on this success, ISRO has announced the launch of India’s third lunar mission, Chandrayaan-3 in 2020.
• However, the unanimous and historic verdict of Supreme Court on the long-festering Ayodhya dispute is considered a “settlement that wasn’t” and will continue to have far reaching impact in the year 2020 too.
• In the aftermath of scraping of article 370 in J&K and complete shutdown of internet, the dream of Indians buying vacation houses in Kashmir remains a dream. The economy of state dependent on tourism and for that matter internet is in shambles and the year ahead seem to be a tough one.
• The year woke up to a series of protests against Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) and nationwide National Register of Citizens (NRC) all over the nation. The recent violent attacks on JNU students and high handedness of police in Jamia University have brought the role of government in question. Year 2020 would require authorities to rethink their strategies.
• India is heading towards Union Budget 2020 with Nominal GDP growth rate at 42-year low. Entering the new year, we all are hoping for fiscal stimulus to lift the economy.
GLOBAL TRENDS DOMINATING 2020
Experience over Materialism: New generation’s habits are shifting from ownership to shared economy and making experiences.
New companies making waves: Big brands are being replaced by new names in terms of higher growth rate
De-globalization: Declining integration with global markets is making way for localisation
Surge in populism: Growing populism in all fields from politics to economics is creating wide polarization as well
Nationalism on rise: The flux of feeling of nationalism among consumers is visible in their preference for local products
Lowering of interest rates: World over capitals are getting easily accessible with constant lowering of interest rates
Decline of traditional media: Popularity of online media has made it the Fifth Estate
Democratization of news: The online mediums have made news independent and easily reachable.
Rising wealth inequality: Globally the gap between the rich and poor is increasing
Moral Capitalism: People want corporate working for social good Per capita income over
GDP: Per capita income is now considered the more accurate benchmark of financial success than GDP
Curating of data: AI filters the data for users based on habits and online searches. This curating of data will become even more enabled going forward.