Prime property markets in central London have recovered from stamp duty hits
Both the mainstream and premium sectors of the prime central London property market have shown a recovery from price falls which followed changes to stamp duty in 2014, a new analysis shows. There has also been an improvement since an extra 3% stamp duty was introduced for additional homes in 2016, according to the analysis of price paid data from the Land Registry by London Central Portfolio and Acadata.
The mainstream sector, where property is priced under the top stamp duty band and which largely represents buy to let property, has seen prices increase by 5.6% from the pre-additional stamp duty peak. This brings average prices to 15.6% above their high point three years ago.
The analysis report points out that the mainstream sector is now outperforming England and Wales which has seen growth of 7.1% over the same period. The premium sector has also seen a bounce back since the introduction of additional stamp duty, resulting in growth of 7% over the last 12 months, although this is now tapering off. Having been most impacted by increased taxation, prices in this sector still remain 3.3% below their 2014 high
A detailed analysis of price growth by decile has shown that both the mainstream sector, the bottom 60% of the market by value, and the premium sector, the top 40% of the market by value, have seen price growth over the last 12 months. The report says this may signal a recovery from price falls and volatility following a spate of residential tax changes and Brexit uncertainty.
According to the research average prices in the mainstream sector, under £1.24 million, are now £822,812, some 15.6% higher than three years ago, before stamp duty was changed from a slab system to a graduated one.
The report also explains that a recovery in the lower value sector, which has been less impacted by recent major tax hikes, was anticipated. However, it is more surprising to see that the premium end of the market, where significant price falls have been reported, is now just 3.3% down from the 2014 high, following a 7% market correction over the year.